Week of June 22–26, 2026

In summary

• Core PCE was in line with forecasts, up +0.32% M/M, but accelerated to +3.41% Y/Y, the most since October 2023. However, Spending and Incomes both accelerated as well despite the rise in inflation.
• The final reading for Q1 U.S. GDP was revised up to +2.1% Q/Q as trade dynamics were more favorable than initially estimated. Consumer Spending slowed to just +0.5% Q/Q, though this was partially due to bad weather.
• Durable Goods Orders fell -4.5% M/M, dragged down by transports. Core Capital Goods rebounded +1.6% M/M, though, and are up +10.5% Y/Y.
• New Home Sales and Building Permits declined as high rates and prices continue to weigh on housing.
• Oil inventories have drawn back down to their lowest levels since the 1980s, with 84.2 million barrels pulled from the SPR in an effort to help stabilize gas prices.
• Michigan Consumer Sentiment was revised up from the preliminary reading thanks to improving optimism around the Iran war agreement. However, inflation expectations remain elevated.