What the team is watching.
Weekly market notes, research commentary, and the conversations the investment committee is having in real time. Published with the same discipline we bring to the portfolios.
AI/Tech Bubble Buildup: Bubbles Can Be Value Destructive During the Creation of New Industries
Global AI investment hit $252B and tech capex is set to reach 7.2% of GDP. Why this cycle's risk surfaces in debt markets — and why infrastructure owners emerge as the durable winners.
Read the commentary →Just published
What the committee published most recently.
Q2 2026 Market Recap
Research commentary Jul 10Weekly Market Note — Week of July 6–10, 2026
Weekly market note Jul 2Weekly Market Note — Week of June 29–July 2, 2026
Weekly market note Jun 26Weekly Market Note — Week of June 22–26, 2026
Weekly market note Jun 18Weekly Market Note — Week of June 15–18, 2026
Weekly market noteQ2 2026 Market Recap
A recovery quarter: a semiconductor-led rebound off the March lows, an off-ramp for the war in Iran, oil's round trip back to the low $80s, and a hawkish debut from the new Fed chair. The setup is healthier than the headlines suggest.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of July 6–10, 2026
The trade deficit widened and home prices hit a record high, while the wholesale inventory-to-sales ratio fell to its lowest level in over a decade.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of June 29–July 2, 2026
June payrolls missed forecasts as participation fell to a 2021 low, while AI became the most-cited reason for this year's job cuts.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of June 22–26, 2026
Core PCE accelerated to its fastest pace since 2023 even as spending and incomes rose, while oil inventories drained to their lowest levels since the 1980s.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of June 15–18, 2026
The FOMC held rates steady but struck a hawkish tone, with nine members now favoring at least one hike this year, while retail sales beat forecasts.
ReadRyan Detrick & Kim Arthur: Sector Rotation, Mid-Cap Thematic Growth & the Bull Case for 2026
Kim Arthur sits down with Carson Group's Ryan Detrick on sector rotation, mid-cap thematic growth, and the bull case for 2026.
WatchWeekly Market Note — Week of June 8–12, 2026
Headline CPI accelerated to its highest since May 2023 and PPI ran hot, while consumer sentiment rebounded from its record low.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of June 1–5, 2026
Nonfarm Payrolls came in well above forecasts as JOLTS and ADP confirmed a heating labor market, while manufacturing PMIs hit multi-year highs.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of May 25–29, 2026
April Core PCE hit its highest since 2023 and Q1 GDP was revised lower, while durable goods orders surged on aircraft.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of May 18–22, 2026
FOMC minutes struck a more hawkish tone as the 30-year yield returned to 2007 levels; eCommerce and retail sales hit fresh highs.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of May 11–15, 2026
Headline CPI reached its highest since 2023 and PPI ran hot, yet retail sales and industrial output showed the economy still expanding.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of May 4–8, 2026
Payrolls stayed solid and productivity jumped, but job-cut announcements climbed and consumer sentiment hit new lows.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of April 27–May 1, 2026
The FOMC held with four dissenters — the most since 1992 — as Core PCE hit its hottest since late 2023 and Q1 GDP came in soft.
ReadAI/Tech Bubble Buildup: Bubbles Can Be Value Destructive During the Creation of New Industries
Global AI investment hit $252B and tech capex is set to reach 7.2% of GDP. Why this cycle's risk surfaces in debt markets — and why infrastructure owners emerge as the durable winners.
ReadQ2 2026 Macro Outlook
Kim Arthur and James Maxwell walk through the macro setup, sector positioning, and the questions advisors are asking most this quarter.
WatchWeekly Market Note — Week of April 20–24, 2026
Retail sales beat handily and PMIs firmed, signaling no material consumer slowdown — even as sentiment sat at record lows.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of April 13–17, 2026
PPI cooled month-over-month but hit a two-year high annually; small-business optimism and industrial output both softened.
ReadWeekly Market Note — Week of April 6–10, 2026
Headline CPI surged the most since 2022 as energy spiked, Q4 GDP was revised down, and consumer sentiment soured on the Iran conflict.
ReadIs the “K-Shaped Economy” as Bad as It Seems?
Headlines say the haves and have-nots have split into a K. The data — on inflation, spending, income, and sentiment — says the gap is far narrower than the narrative.
ReadKim Arthur on CNBC's ETF Edge with Dominic Chu
A conversation on sector-rotation fund strategies and navigating market volatility.
ReadKim Arthur on Schwab Network: U.S./Iran Over Soon, Market Will Bounce Back
Kim Arthur on sector rotation into materials, industrials, and energy — and the case for a market rebound.
ReadPodcast
The weekly note, on video.
Week of June 29–July 2, 2026
Week of June 22–26, 2026
Week of June 15–18, 2026
Ryan Detrick & Kim Arthur: Sector Rotation, Mid-Cap Thematic Growth & the Bull Case for 2026
Week of June 8–12, 2026
Week of May 25–29, 2026
The weekly note
One email, every Monday, from the committee.
Where positioning stands, what we are watching this week, and what changed since the last note. Written for advisors and allocators who would rather read it themselves than wait for the recap.
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