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Weekly Market Note
Week of July 20–24, 2026
This week’s round-up of economic releases and market insights.
No video walkthrough was recorded for this week — the full note is available below.
In summary
- December rate hike probabilities climbed this week ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, likely on a renewed spike in oil prices; Fed Funds Futures are now pricing 1–2 hikes by year-end, with a 38% probability of a hike next week.
- Initial Jobless Claims came in at 187,000, well below forecasts and the lowest reading since 1969, while continuing claims also fell from the prior week.
- The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.6 in July from 51.9 in June, well above forecasts of 52.3 and the highest reading since November, as services surprised to the upside and manufacturing came in roughly in line.
- The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved to -0.02 in June from -0.19, with the largest gains among the sub-indices coming from Personal Consumption & Housing.
- New Home Sales rose +1.6% M/M to a SAAR of 628,000, the first monthly increase in three months, though the level remains low relative to recent years.
- Commodities continued to run hot, with gasoline up 105.0% and crude oil up 58.3% year-to-date and the S&P GSCI up 45.0%, the backdrop behind the week's firmer rate hike pricing.