Week of August 10–14, 2026

In summary

• Headline CPI rose +0.07% M/M in July, in line with forecasts of +0.1%, and slowed to +3.30% Y/Y as energy declined -1.5% M/M following June’s -5.7% drop; Core CPI rose +0.22% M/M, also in line with forecasts, and decelerated to +2.47% Y/Y, its lowest reading since March 2021.
• Shelter, roughly 36% of the CPI basket, posted a +0.14% M/M rise and slowed to +3.16% Y/Y, while gasoline fell -2.86% M/M after June’s -9.69% decline but remains +24.64% higher than a year ago.
• Headline PPI declined -0.03% M/M, a second consecutive monthly drop and well below forecasts of +0.2%, slowing to +4.66% Y/Y; Core PPI rose +0.24% M/M against forecasts of +0.3% and eased to +4.16% Y/Y, with goods pulling back to +6.35% Y/Y and services at +3.92%.
• July Retail Sales fell -0.58% M/M versus forecasts of +0.1%, the largest decline since May 2025, slowing to +5.01% Y/Y, while Core Retail Sales fell -0.24% M/M against +0.3% expectations; the pullback was concentrated in non-store retailers at -2.2% M/M and autos at -2.0%, consistent with Prime Day shifting into June this year.
• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped +2.4 points to 99.8 in July, its highest since August 2025 and above forecasts of 97.5, with Quality of Labor replacing inflation as the single most important problem at 27%; Hiring Plans for the next three months reached +20, the highest since September 2022, though actual employment changes fell to -5.
• Q2 2026 Household Debt declined -$13.5 billion Q/Q, the first drop since Q2 2020, as mortgage debt fell -$74.0 billion — the largest decline since Q2 2013 — outweighing increases in credit card (+$21.0 billion) and auto (+$28.0 billion) balances; 95.3% of balances remain current, and while severely derogatory balances reached 2.0%, transition rates into later-stage delinquency declined.
• Existing Home Sales retreated to 4.06 million in July, roughly in line with forecasts and up +0.7% Y/Y, remaining in the depressed range held since mortgage rates doubled in 2022, while the median price of $434,100 came in below June’s record $442,800 and stands +2.0% above a year ago.