Week of August 17–21, 2026

In summary

• Industrial Production rose +0.20% M/M in July, slightly below forecasts of +0.3%, while Manufacturing Output gained +0.16% M/M in line with expectations — a sixth consecutive monthly increase and the longest streak since 2002; the Industrial Production Index reached 103.0, its highest since January 2019, and Manufacturing Output hit 99.3, the best since August 2019, up +1.27% and +1.08% Y/Y respectively.
• Total Capacity Utilization ticked up to 76.3%, in line with forecasts and the highest since July 2025, with Manufacturing Utilization at 76.0%, the best since June 2024; Defense & Space Equipment has now risen for eight straight months, moving from 111.8 to 120.6 (+8%) and posting all-time highs on the last two readings, up +6.84% Y/Y.
• Import and Export Prices unexpectedly declined in July against forecasts of +0.1% and +0.2%: Import Prices fell -0.40% M/M, the most since May 2025, and Export Prices dropped -1.31% M/M, the biggest monthly decline since May 2023; both indices remain elevated relative to history at +5.95% and +8.25% Y/Y, off their May 2026 record highs.
• Petroleum product import prices led the move lower at -7.54% M/M, the largest drop since December 2023, easing to +26.3% Y/Y from roughly +48% in May, while High Tech import prices rose +1.82% M/M for a ninth consecutive increase and a record +16.98% Y/Y.
• Total Building Permits rose +5.02% M/M in July to 1.443 million units SAAR, above forecasts of 1.37 million, led by Multi-Family at +9.13% M/M (490k units) with Single Family up +2.52% (894k), though the series has trended sideways for several years.
• Housing Starts moved the other way, falling -12.44% M/M to 1.239 million units SAAR versus forecasts of 1.35 million, with Multi-Family down -15.63% (421k) and Single Family down -9.92% to 808k, the lowest since November 2022; Pending Home Sales fell -2.33% M/M against forecasts of +0.3%, a second consecutive decline, leaving the index at 71.2 and -2.2% Y/Y.
• Regional manufacturing surveys strengthened in August: Philly Fed Current Activity jumped +6.0 points to 47.4 against forecasts of 25, the best since April 2021, and Future Activity surged +39.2 points — the largest monthly gain on record — to 73.6, its highest since August 1983; the NY Fed improved as well, with Current Activity at 20.6, the best since December 2021, and Future Activity at 32.1, putting the average regional Fed current and future indices at their highest levels since February 1993, though the prices paid and received components remain near decade highs.
• August flash PMIs were mixed on the manufacturing side, with the U.S. slipping to 53.2 below forecasts of 53.9 while Germany hit 54.1, its best since May 2022, and the simple flash average ticked up to 52.9; the flash Service PMIs were firmer, led by the U.S. at 56.8, tied for the highest since March 2022.