Week of September 7–11, 2026

In summary

• August Headline CPI rose +0.40% M/M, in line with expectations, ticking up to +3.35% Y/Y as Energy prices re-accelerated +2.1% M/M after two down months, while Food prices rose just +0.1% and Shelter held its steady deceleration; Core CPI came in above forecasts at +0.29% M/M versus +0.2% expected, though an easier comp rolling off from last August brought the Y/Y figure down to +2.45%, the lowest since March 2021, with markets pricing roughly 87% odds of an FOMC hike at next week’s meeting.
• Gasoline prices rebounded +3.90% M/M in August after two months of declines, re-accelerating to +27.41% Y/Y, and diesel reached an all-time high of $5.97 per gallon this week; the split within goods remains wide, with NonDurable Goods CPI — which includes petroleum and fuels — at +5.85% Y/Y against Durable Goods at -0.33% Y/Y, a divergence that opened earlier this year as the Iran conflict escalated.
• Headline PPI rose +0.40% M/M in August, in line with expectations, while the Core figure gained a more muted +0.16% M/M, roughly half of forecasts for +0.3%, as petroleum-based goods drove the gap; on a Y/Y basis both rebounded as negative M/M readings from last August rolled off, with Headline PPI back to +5.41% and Core to +4.62%.
• Energy PPI jumped +4.16% M/M — following two consecutive monthly declines — and moved back up to +24.31% Y/Y on a +24% increase in diesel fuel, while Electronics PPI rose +3.45% M/M and +27.61% Y/Y, having gained in 11 of the past 13 months for a cumulative +32%; together they pushed Goods PPI +1.1% M/M against just +0.1% for Services.
• Oil prices surged as the Iran conflict flared again, with Brent above $120 per barrel (+80% Y/Y) and WTI above $100 (+64% Y/Y) — gains of +76% and +49% respectively since July 6 — pushing bond yields higher and central banks toward more hawkish policy; diesel has responded most sharply at $5.97 per gallon, +58% Y/Y and +72% above its $3.46 level in January.
• The European Central Bank raised rates to 2.5% this week, its second hike in a matter of months after three years without action, citing the Middle East conflict as a source of persistent inflation pressure; the bank projects 3% inflation for this year and raised its 2027 and 2028 projections to 2.5% and 2.1%, with Euro Area CPI currently running at 2.95% and most global CPI figures trending higher.
• The August NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.7 against forecasts of 99.3, leaving it rangebound over the past 18 months and below its 99.2 median; Quality of Labor remains the single most important problem though it eased to 23% from 27% in July, while Inflation ticked up to 16%, now tied with Taxes for second.
• Within the NFIB detail, Actual Employment Changes fell to -7%, the lowest since June 2025, with Few/No Qualified Applicants down to +47%, firms with Positions Not Able to Fill at +35% and Hiring Plans retreating to +17%; the sales picture deteriorated as well, with actual changes versus the prior three months slipping to -9% net, the most negative in several months, and three-month Sales Expectations retreating to their median at +6%.
• Preliminary September Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined for a second consecutive month to 47.8, well below forecasts of 51.0, with Consumer Expectations at 45.8 and Current Economic Conditions at 50.9; inflation expectations moved back up, with the 1-year figure rising to 4.60% and the 5-year to 3.40%.
• Existing Home Sales fell for a third straight month in August to 3.98 million units SAAR, in line with forecasts and tied for the lowest since September 2024, pushing the Y/Y figure back into the red at -1.2%, while the Median Existing Home Price declined for a second month to $429,100, still +1.6% Y/Y and just -3% below its all-time high; with the 30-year mortgage rate back above 7% at 7.05%, the Months’ Supply of Existing Homes has risen to 4.9 months, the highest since November 2015.