Week of September 28–October 2, 2026

In summary

• September Nonfarm Payrolls added +29k jobs, well below forecasts for 90k, with August revised down to 133k from 162k and July revised back into negative territory at -10k, though the 6-month average remains solid; the Labor Force has grown by more than 1 million people over the last two months while Those Not in the Labor Force shrank by -897k from an all-time high of 106.2 million, with August’s -551k the largest monthly decline since October 2020.
• Average Hourly Earnings rose just +0.13% M/M against forecasts for +0.3%, slowing to +3.02% Y/Y, the weakest since May 2021; with people re-entering the labor force, the Participation Rate rose to 61.8% and the prime-age (25–54) rate recovered to 83.7%, while the U3 Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4.2% versus forecasts of 4.1% and the broader U6 Rate fell to 7.6%, the lowest since January 2025.
• August Core PCE rose +0.25% M/M, below forecasts for +0.3%, with the Y/Y rate ticking up to +3.01%; methodology revisions lowered prior readings, cutting the May Y/Y peak to 3.16% from 3.46%, led by Portfolio Management Services and Computer Software & Accessories, while Gas & Other Energy Goods re-accelerated to +27.9% Y/Y and Energy Goods & Services to +16.8% Y/Y.
• Consumer Spending jumped +0.86% M/M, above forecasts for +0.8% and the strongest in a couple of months, lifting the Y/Y rate back up to +6.08%, while Personal Incomes rose just +0.24% M/M against forecasts of +0.4% and slowed to +4.27% Y/Y, extending a downtrend that began three years ago.
• The final Q2 2026 GDP reading was revised up to +2.22% Q/Q from +1.50% in the second estimate, and Q1 was revised up to +2.5% from 2.1%; from the first to the final estimate, Private Domestic Investment saw the largest upward revision at +1.64% and Services Spending +1.19%, while Goods Spending was revised down -0.71% and Goods PCE -0.69%.
• Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers were revised up to +4.59% Q/Q from +4.17%, the largest increase since Q1 2023, and broader Final Sales to +2.76% from +2.22% for a fifth straight quarterly gain; GDP per Capita was revised up to +2.02% Q/Q, lifting its 10-year rolling average to +2.21%, the highest since Q4 2006, and reached a record $71,212, up +1.9% Y/Y.
• Corporate Profits hit a new high of $3.88 trillion in Q2, up +115% from the Q2 2020 trough, rising +7.7% Q/Q (revised down from 8.2%), the largest gain since Q2 2021, and +18.2% Y/Y, the highest since Q4 2021; margins climbed to 16.6%, the highest since Q3 2021, from 13.9% a year ago.
• August JOLTS Job Openings declined to 7.08 million, missing forecasts of 7.23 million, while Hires inched up to 5.19 million, Quits slipped to 3.07 million and Layoffs fell to 1.64 million, the lowest since March 2025.
• ADP Payrolls added +90k jobs in September, beating forecasts of 80k and the best since June, led by medium firms (50–499 employees) at +54k, the most since July 2024, followed by small firms at +23k and large firms at +14k; every major size category is positive Y/Y for the first time since May 2025, led by large firms at +1.21%.
• September Job Cut Announcements came in a bit below historical levels at 43,281, while announced hires of 90,787 were -82% below the September average of 489,921 as the usual seasonal hiring surge failed to materialize; Artificial Intelligence is the most cited reason for job cuts this year at 120k, followed by market conditions at 114k.