Week of October 5–9, 2026

In summary

• The August Trade Balance widened to -$105.6 billion, wider than forecasts of -$102 billion, as Imports rose to a new all-time high of $420.8 billion on crude oil, non-monetary gold and semiconductors, while Exports increased to $315.2 billion after three straight monthly declines; Goods Imports reached $342.2 billion, just below their March 2025 record, and are up +28.4% Y/Y, with Goods Exports up +15.3% Y/Y.
• Within Goods Imports, Capital Goods surged on demand for high-tech components and now account for 43.6% of imports, followed by Industrial Supplies at 18.6% and Consumer Goods at 17.1%; every category is positive Y/Y for the first time since July 2024.
• September U.S. Service PMIs were mixed, with the ISM figure ticking down to 54.9 while the S&P figure was revised up to 58.8 from the flash 58.7, the strongest since July 2021; within the ISM components, Prices rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, Employment inched back into expansion at 50.1, and New Orders and Business Activity pulled back to 59.8 and 56.5, respectively.
• Global Service PMIs were more up than down, with every major economy in expansion: the JPM Global Index rose to 54.5, the highest since May 2023, the Eurozone improved to 53.0, China ticked up to 51.6 and Japan was the lone decliner at 51.3; within Europe, Spain led at 58.3, the best since March 2023, Germany improved to 52.9 and France moved back into expansion at 51.2, while Italy and the U.K. declined to 51.7 and 52.1.
• Composite PMIs largely followed the service readings, with the U.S. at 58.4, the highest since July 2021, the JPM Global Index at 54.3, the best since May 2023, and the Euro Area at 53.1, the highest since April 2023; Japan was the lone major decliner at 52.3, while in Europe Spain led at 56.8, Germany reached 53.8 and France returned to expansion at 51.1.
• The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations showed 1-year inflation expectations jumping to 3.90%, the highest since May 2023, with the 3-year ticking up to 3.25% and the 5-year easing to 3.00%; Medical Care remains the highest category at 9.2%, followed by Rent at 6.8% and Food at 5.5%, while Earnings Growth expectations were the only decliner at 2.6% and the share expecting credit to be much harder to obtain rose to 16.0%, the highest since September 2023.
• Preliminary October Michigan Consumer Sentiment fell to 46.3, missing forecasts of 47.6, as Current Conditions dropped to 44.7 against forecasts of 50.5, a new record low, while Consumer Expectations ticked up to 47.3, ahead of 45.9 expectations; 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.70% and the 5-year to 3.50%, both the highest since May.
• Consumer Credit rose +$8.3 billion M/M in August, led by Non-Revolving Credit at +$13.1 billion while Revolving Credit fell -$4.8 billion, the most since March 2025; Revolving is up +3.37% Y/Y, Total Credit +2.73% and Non-Revolving +2.51%, with all three series at all-time highs and Non-Revolving accounting for $3.84 trillion, or 74% of the total.
• The Manheim Used Car Price Index declined to 205.9 in September, the lowest since December 2025, leaving prices down -0.55% Y/Y, the most negative since October 2024; prices fell -1.10% M/M for a third straight monthly decline, the longest streak since June 2024.