Week of July 27–31, 2026

In summary

• The FOMC left rates unchanged this week, though three members dissented in favor of a 25bps hike and the statement turned more hawkish; Fed Funds Futures now price a 40.7% chance of one hike and a 37.5% chance of two by year-end.
• Core PCE slowed to +0.13% M/M in June, below forecasts of +0.2% and the smallest gain since March 2025, decelerating to +3.29% Y/Y; the broader PCE Price Index fell -0.11% M/M as energy prices dropped -6%, its first monthly decline since July 2022.
• The first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at +1.50% Q/Q annualized, below forecasts of +2.1% as net trade weighed on the figure, but Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers jumped +3.94% Q/Q, the biggest gain since Q1 2023.
• Durable Goods Orders rose just +0.32% M/M in June, well below forecasts of +1.6%, while Core Capital Goods gained +0.89% M/M and accelerated to +12.54% Y/Y, the strongest reading since August 2021.
• Home prices rebounded in May after April declines, with the FHFA Index reaching a new all-time high of 442.4 and the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index at 343.0, just below its record; the two are up +2.24% and +1.62% Y/Y, respectively.
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence declined to 90.8 in July, missing forecasts of 92.0 with the Present Situation component at its lowest since February 2021, while the final University of Michigan Sentiment reading was revised up to 55.2, a second consecutive monthly gain.