Week of September 21–25, 2026

In summary

• August Durable Goods Orders were essentially flat at -0.02% M/M, below forecasts for a +0.4% increase, while Goods ex-Transportation rose +0.31% and Core Capital Goods posted a stronger +1.59% for a fourth straight monthly gain; on a Y/Y basis Total Durable Goods slowed to +8.48% and ex-Transportation to +11.24%, while Core Capital Goods accelerated to +14.09%, the highest since August 2021.
• The final September reading of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was revised up to 48.1 from the preliminary 47.8, still a second straight decline at historically depressed levels, with Current Economic Conditions unrevised at 50.9 and Consumer Expectations revised up to 46.3 from 45.8; inflation expectations were unchanged from the preliminary reading, with the 1-year figure at 4.60% and the 5-year at 3.40%.
• Flash September Manufacturing PMIs were led by the U.S. at 57.0, well above forecasts of 53.6 and the highest since May 2022, with the Euro Area unchanged at 52.7, the U.K. up to 52.0, Germany down to 53.8, France at 50.3, Japan at 54.1 and India rebounding to 55.7; Australia was the lone country in contraction at 49.3, the lowest since December 2024, and the simple flash average improved to 53.1.
• Flash Service PMIs were stronger still, with the U.S. at 58.7 against forecasts of 56 and tied for the highest since July 2021, Germany back in expansion at 52.9, the best since February, France at 51.4 and the Euro Area at 53.0, the best since November 2025; the simple flash average rose to 53.3, the highest since January, and every country reporting flash figures is in expansion for the first time since November 2025.
• August New Home Sales rose +6.4% M/M to 684,000 units SAAR, beating forecasts of 620,000 and the highest since December 2025, though still -2.0% Y/Y; the Average New Home Price fell -9% M/M to $478,700, the largest monthly decline since September 2014 and -11% below its July 2022 record, while the Median Price inched up to $393,700, -5.8% Y/Y and -14% off its October 2022 high, as builders shrink square footage and offer more incentives.
• The Months’ Supply of New Homes declined to 8.5 months, the lowest since December 2025, while Existing Homes supply rose to 4.9 months, the highest since November 2015, for a combined 13.4 months (+2.3% Y/Y); the Total Value of All Homes Sold declined to $1.98 trillion (-0.8% Y/Y), with New Homes at $269.3 billion (-7.7% Y/Y) and Existing Homes at $1.71 trillion (+0.3% Y/Y).
• The effective 30-year Mortgage Rate climbed to 7.33% alongside rising bond yields, the highest since May 2024, and the MBA Mortgage Indices for purchases, refinancing and applications are all declining.
• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey pulled back for a second month in September, with Current Manufacturing Conditions falling to -2, Local Business Conditions to -6, the lowest since February, and 6-month Expectations to +10; 11 sub-indices declined and 4 improved for an average move of -4.3 points, with Shipments down -16 points and Number of Employees up +9.
• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey was mixed, with current activity rising to +14, the highest since July 2022, and future activity easing to +19, still the second-best reading since July 2022; no current sub-index is negative for the first time since April 2022, though Prices Paid at 68 and Prices Received at 37 are at their highest since June 2022 and July 2022, respectively.
• Current Prices Paid and Prices Received indices rose in September at the Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys, with the Dallas Fed reading still to come, leaving the regional averages very likely to move higher for the month and pointing to input-cost pressure that may pass through to consumers.