Week of November 2–6, 2026

In summary

• October Nonfarm Payrolls rose +165k, 100k above forecasts, as September was revised up to 60k from 29k and August to 186k from 133k for a combined +84k upward revision; the Labor Force grew +421k, the Household Survey rose +463k, the U3 Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% while U6 rose to 7.9%, and the Participation Rate improved for a third straight month to 61.9%, the best since March 2026, with the 25–54 rate unchanged at 83.7%.
• Average Hourly Earnings rose +0.37% M/M, above forecasts for +0.3%, but slowed to +3.12% Y/Y, leaving real wages negative for the last several months as inflation has picked up.
• Preliminary Q3 Productivity rose +3.6% Q/Q, above forecasts for +2.8% and a third straight accelerating quarter, as Output rose +3.7%, the best in a year, while Hours Worked ticked up +0.1%; Unit Labor Costs fell -0.7% Q/Q against +0.6% expectations, the largest drop since Q2 2025, though manufacturing Unit Labor Costs rose +2.7%, and the 20-quarter rolling average of Productivity growth rose to 1.89%, more than triple its 2015 trough.
• September JOLTS Openings rose more than expected to 7.52 million and Hires improved to 5.40 million, while Quits rose to 3.37 million, the highest since March 2025, and Layoffs declined to 1.64 million.
• October ADP Payrolls rose +86k, above forecasts for +69k, led by Medium firms at +33k, Small at +28k and Large at +24k; Total ADP Payrolls are up +0.62% Y/Y, with Large firms +1.07%, Small +0.76% and Medium +0.25%, the strongest Y/Y reading for Medium firms since March 2025.
• Challenger Job Cut Announcements inched up to 43,994 in October, still below historical averages, while announced Hires surged to 444,692, the largest October since at least 2009 and the largest month since September 2023, led by Tech at 300k and Transportation at 100k; year-to-date Hires of 655,304 moved back above Cuts of 617,189, after Cuts led Hires for all of 2025.
• The September Trade Deficit narrowed to -$105.0 billion against forecasts of -$108 billion as Exports outpaced Imports M/M, though Imports reached another all-time high of $426.6 billion while Exports of $321.5 billion remain -2.5% below their April 2026 peak; Imports are up +21.3% Y/Y and Exports +10.0% Y/Y.
• September Factory Orders rose +1.84% M/M, above forecasts for +1.2% and the best since April, with Orders ex-Transportation up +1.27% M/M and August revised higher for both; both series are at new all-time highs in dollar terms, with Total Orders up +10.50% Y/Y and ex-Transportation +11.07% Y/Y.
• Preliminary November Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose 3 points to 51.0, above forecasts of 48, with Consumer Expectations at 50.9 and Current Economic Conditions at 51.0, while 1-year inflation expectations declined to 4.3% and 5-year to 3.4%; the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved for a third straight month to 48.5, the best since February, with its 6-month Outlook at 45.3, the best since September 2025.