Week of June 15–18, 2026

In summary

• The FOMC left rates unchanged as expected. The biggest surprise was a hawkish shift in the tone and the dot plot, with 9 FOMC members now expecting at least one rate hike this year.
• Retail Sales posted a solid +0.9% M/M increase, beating forecasts, as Gas Stations continue to benefit from higher prices in the wake of the Iran war. Consumer spending is not yet showing signs of slowing despite fears that higher energy prices and a lower savings rate would weigh on it.
• Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output missed expectations in May but remain in uptrends, with the indices themselves at multi-year highs.
• Import and Export Prices saw sizeable increases in May, coming in well above forecasts. Import Prices in particular have been driven higher by Oil- and Tech-related categories.
• NY & Philly Fed Manufacturing indices were mixed for the month, with NY declining while Philly was a bit stronger.