Week of August 31–September 4, 2026

In summary

• August Nonfarm Payrolls jumped +162,000, roughly triple forecasts of +55,000, and July was revised up to +21,000 from -23,000; Leisure & Hospitality added the most jobs at +62,000 while Information lagged at -23,000, the headline U3 Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1% as expected, and the broader U6 rate declined to 7.7%.
• The household detail was firmer still: the Labor Force grew +683,000, the most since January 2025, while those not in the labor force fell -551,000, the largest drop since October 2020; the +115,000 increase in the number of unemployed reflects people re-engaging with the labor force rather than job losses, and the Participation Rate rose to 61.6% from 61.4% with the 25–54 cohort at 83.4%.
• Average Hourly Earnings rose +0.27% M/M, in line with expectations, but slowed to +3.09% Y/Y — the smallest gain since May 2021 — leaving wage growth below inflation; the 55+ cohort continues to weigh on the headline Participation Rate, accounting by some estimates for 0.8 points of its roughly 1-point decline.
• July JOLTS Openings ticked up to 7.27 million but missed forecasts of 7.30 million, with Hires easing to 5.05 million, Quits to 3.06 million and Layoffs to 1.67 million; Manufacturing led openings at +79,000 and Construction hired the most at +47,000, and while total separations have exceeded hires for three consecutive months — the longest streak since 2010, against a historical median of +157,000 more hires — the ratio of openings per unemployed person moved back up to 1.05x, the highest since January 2025.
• August ADP Payrolls rose a more modest +38,000 against forecasts of +47,000, with large firms adding +34,000, small firms +3,000 and medium firms flat — the first month in several in which small firms have not led; small firms have now added jobs for 14 straight months (+634,000) and large firms for five (+155,000), leaving total payrolls +0.58% Y/Y, large firms +1.36% and small firms +0.84%, with medium firms the only negative category at -0.07% Y/Y.
• August Job Cut Announcements totaled 52,881, down from July and roughly in line with historical levels, while announced hires remained anemic at 12,325, -57% below historical levels; year-to-date cuts of 529,914 against 119,825 hires keep the year on track for cuts to outnumber hires for a second straight year, though cuts are -41% and hires +37% relative to the same point in 2025. Artificial Intelligence remains the most-cited reason at 116,175 cuts YTD ahead of Market Conditions at 105,335, and Technology is by far the most net-negative industry at -135,375.
• The final reading of Q2 Productivity was unchanged from the preliminary estimate at +1.4% Q/Q annualized, an acceleration from Q1’s +0.8%, with Output unchanged at +1.7% and Hours Worked at +0.3%; Unit Labor Costs were revised down to +1.2% from +1.3% and Hourly Compensation to +2.6% from +2.7%, while Employment was revised to +0.3% from +0.4%.
• The July Trade Balance unexpectedly widened to -$88.6 billion, the largest deficit since March 2025, as Imports posted a new post-tariff high of $399.3 billion and Exports declined for a third consecutive month to $310.7 billion, up +11.2% and +9.3% Y/Y respectively; Goods drove the totals as usual, with Goods Imports at $320.6 billion (+13.7% Y/Y) against Goods Exports of $201.0 billion (+12.1% Y/Y), and non-monetary gold and petroleum products behind the export decline.
• Construction Spending continued its steady decline in July, slowing to $2.16 trillion — the lowest since October 2023 and the eighth decline in ten months — down -3.8% Y/Y and weighed on by private residential fixed investment at its lowest level since April 2023, -7.3% Y/Y; Factory Orders moved the other way with total orders up +0.9% M/M and orders ex-Transportation up +0.6% to a new all-time high of $547.4 billion (+9.9% Y/Y), leaving total orders just below their record at $663.6 billion (+9.2% Y/Y).
• August Service PMIs were much more up than down, led by the U.S. at 56.5, the highest since December 2024 despite a slight downward revision from the 56.8 flash reading, with the JPM Global figure at 53.7, China at 51.4, Japan at 52.5 and the BRIC average at 51.8, while only the Eurozone ticked lower to 51.6; the Composite figures followed suit, with the U.S. at 56.0, its best since April 2022, JPM Global at 53.5, Japan at 53.5, China at 52.1 and the Euro Area unchanged at 52.0.