Week of October 12–16, 2026

In summary

• September Headline CPI rose +0.65% M/M, slightly above forecasts for +0.6% and the second-largest monthly gain since June 2022, accelerating to +3.72% Y/Y, while Core CPI rose +0.33% M/M against +0.2% expectations and moved up to +2.57% Y/Y from August’s multi-year low of +2.45%; Gasoline jumped +9.1% M/M and is up +34.2% Y/Y, Shelter rose +0.4% M/M to +3.23% Y/Y, and Food was roughly flat M/M, slowing to +2.45% Y/Y, the smallest increase since January 2025.
• Goods CPI jumped +1.17% M/M, the second-largest increase since June 2022, accelerating to +4.58% Y/Y, while Services CPI rose +0.36% M/M to +3.23% Y/Y, with monthly gains accelerating in each of the last three readings; Computer Software & Accessories CPI is up a record +28.39% Y/Y, and Airfares have risen for 10 straight months and are up +22.45% Y/Y.
• Headline PPI jumped +1.34% M/M, well above forecasts for +0.5% and the second-largest monthly reading on record, accelerating to +6.35% Y/Y, the highest since December 2022, while Core PPI rose +0.68% M/M against +0.3% estimates to +4.98% Y/Y, the highest since January 2023; Energy PPI surged a record +10.78% M/M to +35.55% Y/Y, and Goods PPI posted a record +2.65% M/M gain to +9.77% Y/Y, the most since October 2022.
• September Retail Sales rose +0.77% M/M, above forecasts for +0.3%, driven largely by a +6.4% M/M surge in Gas Station sales, bringing the Y/Y figure to +6.29%; Core Retail Sales rose a more muted +0.25% M/M, up in 7 of the last 8 months and +5.02% Y/Y, with every category positive Y/Y except Health & Personal Care Stores at -1.2%.
• Industrial Production rose +0.66% M/M and Manufacturing Output +0.26% M/M, with the IndPro index reaching 104.0, the highest since December 2018, and the Output index at 99.4, tied for the highest since August 2019; IndPro is up +2.25% Y/Y, the best since September 2022, Output is up +1.42% Y/Y, and Semiconductor production is up +19.9% Y/Y, the highest since April 2017.
• Export Prices jumped +2.15% M/M and Import Prices +1.13% M/M, both above expectations and at record highs, with Export Prices up +11.6% Y/Y and Import Prices up +8.10% Y/Y, the largest gains since July 2022; every major category rose M/M, led by Semiconductors at +6.93%, the largest monthly increase since September 1988, leaving them up +15.82% Y/Y, the most since February 1989.
• NFIB Small Business Optimism ticked down to 97.9, just below forecasts of 98, as Capex plans declined and the 3-month and 6-month Outlooks deteriorated while the Sales environment improved; Pricing Plans over the next three months rose to a net +31%, and Quality of Labor remains the Single Most Important Problem at 26%, followed by Inflation at 20%.
• September Existing Home Sales rose to 3.99 million, above forecasts of 3.95 million and ending a streak of three straight declines, though still -2.2% Y/Y, while the Median Price pulled back for a third straight month to $417,500, still +1.3% Y/Y.