Week of October 19–23, 2026

In summary

• October Flash PMIs were softer on the margin, though the U.S. Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0, above forecasts for 55.5 and the best since May 2022, while France fell into contraction at 49.3 and the simple flash average ticked down to 52.8; the U.S. Services PMI pulled back to 57.9 but remains the highest of the flash readings, as India, the Euro Area and Japan improved and France and Australia fell back into contraction.
• The final October Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading was revised up from the preliminary figure to 48.0 but remains depressed, with Consumer Expectations at 48.8 and Current Economic Conditions at 46.7, the only component to decline from September as high rates and affordability weighed on durable goods; 1-year inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.7% and 5-year expectations at 3.5%.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 29 in October, a second straight monthly decline and the lowest since June 2012, as 43% of builders cut prices, the most since 2020; Single Family Sales fell to 33, also the lowest since June 2012, Prospective Buyer Traffic dropped to 18, the lowest since April 2020, and 6-month Expectations slipped to 32, the lowest since November 2022.
• September Total Building Permits inched down to 1.400 million units SAAR, slightly above forecasts for 1.390 million, as Single Family Permits fell to 845k, the slowest rate since March 2023, while Multi-Family Permits rose to 503k, the best in several months; Total Permits are -3.0% Y/Y, Single Family -4.8% Y/Y and Multi-Family +1.0% Y/Y.
• Total Housing Starts dropped -5.2% M/M in September to 1.221 million units SAAR, the weakest since May’s multi-year low of 1.182 million, with Single Family Starts declining to 859k, the lowest since September 2025, and Multi-Family Starts to 349k; Total Starts are -7.4% Y/Y and Multi-Family Starts -25.9% Y/Y, the most negative since November 2024, while Single Family Starts are +2.6% Y/Y.
• September Pending Home Sales fell -7.30% M/M, the second-worst monthly drop in the last few years, leaving the index at 66.0, the lowest reading on record, and -11.3% Y/Y, the most negative since August 2023; the index has declined in 3 of the last 4 months and its 6-month average is the lowest since December 2022, with every housing release citing high mortgage rates and elevated prices.