Week of October 26–30, 2026

In summary

• The FOMC held rates at 3.75–4.00%, as expected, with two dissents favoring a 25bp hike; the statement noted the committee is waiting on further data before the December 9 meeting, with one CPI, one PCE and two nonfarm payroll reports due in between, and markets currently price a 69% chance of a hike at that meeting.
• September Core PCE rose +0.32% M/M, matching forecasts, and accelerated to +3.12% Y/Y, the 67th straight month above the Fed’s 2% target, while Headline PCE rose +0.5% M/M, the second-largest gain since October 2022, on an energy rebound; PCE for Gas & Other Energy Goods surged +9.28% M/M, the second-largest since June 2022, and is up +34.96% Y/Y, with Energy Goods & Services up +5.36% M/M and +21.28% Y/Y.
• September Consumer Spending slowed to +0.51% M/M, slightly below forecasts for +0.6%, though it accelerated to +6.28% Y/Y, in line with its long-term median, while Personal Income rose just +0.20% M/M against +0.3% expectations, slowing to +4.15% Y/Y, the second-lowest since April 2022; Unemployment Benefits fell -3.6% M/M, the most since April 2022.
• Preliminary Q3 2026 GDP rose +3.37% Q/Q, above forecasts for +3.2% and the best in a year, as Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers surged +4.95%, the highest since Q2 2021; Imports rose +19.67% and Private Domestic Investment +19.42%, while Exports fell -5.74%, the largest decline since Q2 2020, leaving trade a -3.3 point drag, and Private Domestic Investment reached a record 19.6% share of GDP.
• September Durable Goods Orders rose +1.84% M/M, beating forecasts for +1.5% and the best since April 2026, while Core Capital Goods and Orders ex-Transportation each rose +0.46% M/M, below +0.7% expectations for Core; Total Durable Goods are up +9.94% Y/Y, Core Capital Goods +13.47% and ex-Transportation +11.06%.
• The September Goods Trade Deficit widened more than expected to -$134.9 billion as Goods Imports rose +2.4% M/M to a new all-time high of $344.1 billion and Goods Exports rose +2.6% M/M to $209.2 billion; Imports are up +28.2% Y/Y and Exports +12.7% Y/Y, with Capital Goods ex-Autos imports up a record +77.2% Y/Y and Consumer Goods imports down -12.0% Y/Y.
• September New Home Sales ticked down to 676k, above forecasts for 650k but -5.3% Y/Y, and the Median New Home Price fell to $400,000, -3.9% Y/Y and -13% from its October 2022 peak, while the August FHFA and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City indices each rose for a fourth straight month to new all-time highs, accelerating to +2.44% Y/Y and +2.65% Y/Y, respectively.